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Research Methodologies
March 5, 2020
The much-needed revamp for Market forecasting.
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Humpty Dumpty opens a new shop,
Humpty Dumpty market-researches all props.
But all the great STM and forecasting methodologies,
Could not save Humpty from losing the monies.
This rather lame limerick encapsulates the dilemma of the marketer trying to grow business through new products. As per Bussgang and Clemens (HBR, November 2018), the marketer wants:
In contrast, what conventional MR forecasting offers:
Even after all this, the forecasts still come with an error range of +/-20%.
These challenges result from conventional research that universally follows the same approach:
There are variations to the above, of course, but at heart, they are just that – variations with fundamentals remaining unchanged.
We challenged ourselves to dismantle each of the above forecasting research tenets; what did we have to lose, anyway? At the worst, we would go back to what exists currently. But what if we succeeded?
Very deliberately, we created a design that eliminates the lab-like components of conventional approach and pushed it towards realism:
The approach has already been executed for widely different categories – from personal care to AI devices to food & beverage to new age sensorial experiences.
Our first study was with a disruptive and new-to-the-market idea in a niche category. The results were available in less than two weeks at a fraction of the cost. The product since then has been launched in the market and has achieved 80%+ accuracy only based on a concept.
For a leading smart device company, we have used the approach to forecast volumes for multiple products, including the launch of their flagship brand in local Indian languages.
The question for readers of this post is: can you put your money where your intention for behavioral testing is?
Disclaimer
The views, opinions, data, and methodologies expressed above are those of the contributor(s) and do not necessarily reflect or represent the official policies, positions, or beliefs of Greenbook.
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